Can the most polarizing new president in memory be a good thing for R.I.’s economy?

On April 25, then-presidential candidate Donald J. Trump stood before a throng of supporters at the Crowne Plaza Providence-Warwick. He smiled and nodded as the crowd chanted his name.

“We’re going to bring jobs back to the country and Rhode Island,” he yelled, eliciting a barrage of cheers.

For a Republican, Trump performed quite well in Rhode Island, a state with a strong independent presence but a General Assembly dominated by Democrats. He won the primary election here with a whopping 63.7 percent of the vote.

And while he suffered a double-digit loss in the general election, Trump realized the best results of any Republican presidential candidate since former President George H.W. Bush ran in 1988.

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Trump, of course, went on to win the bruising general election, and was sworn into office Jan. 20.

As a candidate, Trump’s constantly shifting positions on many issues were often difficult to interpret. Even after his victory, his decision-making and messaging often seemed erratic and capricious.

Yet a so-called “Trump Rally” in stocks through the end of the year was a sign that for some investors at least, there’s hope the new president will usher in a new era of economic growth and prosperity.

But what will a Trump administration mean for the Ocean State? Providence Business News identified the following seven areas where Trump’s stated policies and actions to date could have a major impact locally:

INFRASTRUCTURE

Infrastructure is hot right now in Rhode Island.

The state’s pockmarked roadways and crumbling bridges resulted last year in RhodeWorks, a multimillion dollar infrastructure plan paid in part with revenue expected from tolling trucks. The spending plan to date has been Gov. Gina M. Raimondo’s most controversial agenda item.

Raimondo, a Democrat, didn’t support Trump, but her push for infrastructure improvements could nonetheless benefit from his presidency. The new president has proposed a $1 trillion infrastructure-improvement plan.

“We could certainly use that money for airports, money for train stations and train tracks, money for roads and bridges, money for WiFi,” Raimondo told reporters the week after the election. “I hope he’s going to stay true to that commitment.”

As Raimondo noted, it’s difficult to know how that money – which might not be supported by a spending-sensitive Congress – would be divvied up between states. But if Rhode Island is successful in securing more cash earmarked for infrastructure, it could also benefit the construction sector, which for years has scratched for work in a state where new development has been scant.

“The construction unions will be delighted because this will be a full-employment program for them,” said Edward M. Mazze, distinguished university professor of business administration at the University of Rhode Island.

DEFENSE

The Rhode Island defense industry is largely celebrating Trump’s presidency.

Defense contracting is important in Rhode Island, and since the sequestration in 2013, military spending has declined, effectively reducing the number of contracts given out.

“It’s been horrible,” said William H. Weedon, president and CEO of Applied Radar Inc., a research and development company in North Kingstown.

Weedon, however, is optimistic Trump will implement a more robust military-spending plan, which could reignite the industry, he said.

The industry – and perhaps the state at large – could also realize some benefits from Trump’s pick for national security adviser, Michael T. Flynn. The retired U.S. Army lieutenant general is a Rhode Island native and will have the ear of the president.

“I have expressed some of my recent concerns and frustrations to Gen. Flynn as they affect small R&D businesses, and he indicated that he was going to try and help the Rhode Island economy get moving if Mr. Trump [was] elected,” Weedon added.

More money for the military could bode well for the state’s top contractors, including Waltham, Mass.-based Raytheon Co., which has a 1,000-person facility in Middletown; Virginia-based General Dynamics Corp., which has General Dynamics Electric Boat in North Kingstown, and Textron Inc., based in Providence.

“President-elect Trump has made public comments that imply a possible future increase in defense spending, to upgrade and modernize some of the nation’s aging military equipment,” said David Sylvestre, Textron spokesman. “Textron is in a position to benefit from increased defense spending if that becomes part of future federal budgets approved by Congress.”

Despite the optimism, however, no one is ruling out the possibility that Trump’s actions could fall short of his promises.

“This could happen for a number of reasons, including political gridlock, if there is a major scandal, or if he appoints the wrong people to implement his strategy,” Weedon said.

HEALTH CARE

The day Trump was elected president, health care in Rhode Island – and the nation – went from an industry in flux to an industry with no clear direction.

One of the Republican Party’s top priorities since the passage of the Affordable Care Act, known better as Obamacare, has been to repeal it, an effort picked up on by Trump during the campaign.

Now, with a Republican-led Congress, and Trump’s secretary of health and human services pick, Thomas E. Price, a vocal Obamacare critic, a change to the massive health care reform law seems ever-more likely.

What that change will look like, however, is less clear, and has cast a shadow of uncertainty over the industry. Several health-related organizations, including Lifespan Inc., the state’s largest hospital system, and Blue Cross & Blue Shield of Rhode Island, the state’s largest health insurer, declined to comment for this story.

“There’s a big question mark,” said Jerry W. Dauterive, an economist at Roger Williams University. “Hold on. It could be a bumpy ride.”

What is clear, however, is that any change has real implications for Rhode Island.

The state each year receives millions of dollars through Obamacare in tax credits and discounts. Much of that money goes toward reimbursing health providers – such as hospitals and doctors – and effectively drives down uncompensated care.

Private insurers, on the other hand, also receive millions in discounts to cover insurance costs for people with low incomes. Insurers will watch to see whether Trump rescinds an Obama-administration appeal of a ruling by the U.S. District Court for the District of Columbia that says the federal government unconstitutionally allocated that money through Obamacare.

Billions of dollars are at stake for the insurance companies nationwide, which would drastically impact balance sheets and could effectively undo Obamacare.

Finally, any major changes in the law could impact coverage for thousands of Rhode Islanders. Between HealthSource RI, the state’s health care exchange, and the expansion of Medicaid under Obamacare, more than 100,000 more Rhode Islanders have health insurance today than they did in 2012, and the uninsured rate has dropped from 11 percent in 2012 to 4 percent in 2016.

“We have a pretty substantial percentage of people on Obamacare, and now they could all be uninsured,” Mazze said.

Because Rhode Island’s exchange is state-based, it is somewhat independent from federal regulations and control. But its long-term viability is largely dependent on federal tax credits and discounts for coverage, meaning any repeal of such funding mechanisms could have detrimental repercussions locally.

“The money that matters is the tax credits, which would impact the states equally whether they have state-based exchanges or are on the federal exchange,” said Anya Rader Wallack, former director of HealthSource RI now employed as a program manager with the Brown University School of Public Health.

However, Rhode Island’s exchange has created a small-business platform called SHOP, which is unique to the Obamacare debate. About 8 percent of the small-group market is insured through SHOP, totaling about 5,000 employees between 600 employers.

The SHOP model is unique in the country, Wallack said, and – with the exception of operational costs – largely independent of federal funding sources.

“Why would the federal government care to dismantle it?” Wallack asked hypothetically. “There’s a case to be made that it’s a benefit to Rhode Island businesses.”

IMMIGRATION

Perhaps the most controversial and divisive aspect of Trump’s campaign has been his approach to immigration.

From threats of mass deportation of undocumented immigrants to creating national registries based on race and ethnicity, Trump has often connected immigration and issues related to national security.

“Syrian refugees are now being settled in Rhode Island,” he said during his rally in Warwick. “Lock your doors because it’s a big problem. We don’t know where they come from, who they are, there’s no documentation and we have our incompetent government letting them in. We don’t know. We don’t know. Maybe it’s ISIS.”

Regardless of how Trump moves forward on immigration-related policies, however, foreign-born Rhode Islanders are an integral part of the state’s economy. About one in eight Rhode Islanders is an immigrant, according to the American Immigration Council, an advocacy group.

And undocumented workers – the target of much of Trump’s often inflammatory rhetoric, comprised about 4.6 percent – or 25,000 members – of the state’s workforce in 2012, according to the Pew Hispanic Center.

“For Providence and other smaller cities, immigrants are a major part of the community and businesses, and if they are impacted, all of that business goes away,” said Kathleen Cloutier, executive director of Dorcas International Institute of Rhode Island, a nonprofit that works with immigrants and refugees.

Cloutier’s nonprofit – along with other organizations throughout the country working in partnership with the federal refugee resettlement programs – stands to lose money should Trump defund the efforts.

Locally, if Trump were to successfully remove all undocumented immigrants from Rhode Island, the state would lose an estimated $698 million in economic activity, $310 million in gross state product and about 3,780 jobs, according to a report by The Perryman Group, an economic and financial analysis firm.

“We have a pretty significant immigrant population for a pretty small state,” Mazze said.

Providence Mayor Jorge O. Elorza has spoken out against Trump’s rhetoric, saying immigrants in his city will be protected. Trump has indicated he would try to revoke federal funding for U.S. cities that support undocumented immigrants, specifically those known as “sanctuary cities.”

Elorza, however, has said he does not consider Providence to be a sanctuary city. Providence does cooperate with federal immigration authorities in some cases, but the city does not hold undocumented immigrants charged with a simple civil infraction.

EDUCATION

One of Trump’s oft-repeated campaign pledges was a promise to support returning control of local education to the states.

His nomination for education secretary of billionaire Betsy DeVos, a pro-school choice, pro-voucher program activist, has piqued a great deal of local interest.

“The doors are already being opened with charter schools,” Mazze said. “The [nominee for] secretary of education is very strong-willed, a big believer in the charter-schools systems and vouchers, and right now seems to be supporting these types of schools. It’s going to put a cloud over public schools, especially public school systems that are not performing well on tests.”

Rhode Island’s teacher workforce is still heavily unionized, which creates resistance from public schools to move resources toward nonunion charter schools. Meanwhile, questions about educational equity are often raised, as charter schools can be selective. Some require contractual obligations from parents and families that they cannot fulfill, thus preventing those children from attending.

Regardless, there are no for-profit charter schools in Rhode Island, and while public schools and nonprofit charter schools often butt heads over funding models and educational methods, neither has had to accommodate – or deal with – for-profit charter schools, which DeVos has heavily advocated for in Michigan.

The prospect of this new type of school entering Rhode Island makes both public-school and nonprofit-charter-school advocates uneasy.

“DeVos’ public track record and anticipated vision of for-profit charter schools and private-school vouchers runs counter to what is positive and powerful about the charter movement – that we are public, nonprofit schools, accountable to the public for our management and results,” according to a statement released by The Learning Community and Blackstone Academy, two Rhode Island charter schools.

“Rhode Island is a state where there are no for-profit charter schools popping up in strip malls,” the statement continued. “On behalf of the children of our state, we want to keep it that way.”

MANUFACTURING

Rhode Island lost more than half of its manufacturing jobs from 1990-2015.

The downward trend was exacerbated during the Great Recession when the state lost 20.8 percent of its manufacturing jobs, according to the R.I. Department of Labor and Training.

In 1990, there were 95,100 manufacturing jobs in Rhode Island, according to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. By 2015, that number had dropped to 41,300.

Trump has promised to look for ways to keep major companies from leaving the United States, and to bring jobs back from other countries. But while this could bode well for other states, economists are skeptical Rhode Island will realize any major gains.

“If manufacturing companies come to Rhode Island, it will have nothing to do with Trump. It’ll have everything to do with the state’s ability to attract companies,” Mazze said.

Bill McCourt, past president of the R.I. Manufacturing Association, largely agrees, saying the Ocean State business climate must improve in order for the industry to again flourish.

“Just moving jobs to the United States isn’t the answer because with the regulatory structures we have, they will just end up out of business,” he said.

RWU’s Dauterive, a strong advocate of free trade, is concerned with Trump’s messaging around trade and tariffs, along with his – and Vice President Michael R. Pence’s – dealings with HVAC company Carrier Corp. Trump and Pence convinced the company to keep some manufacturing jobs in Indianapolis, instead of leaving the country, in exchange for millions of dollars in state tax credits.

Dauterive worries such a deal sends the wrong message to other companies here and abroad.

“His approach to browbeating companies to impact their decisions about where to locate businesses is not a good sign,” he said. “To try and bribe these companies into keeping them here by offering taxpayer dollars to do so, is something that I’m not excited about at all.”

ENERGY-ENVIRONMENT

A proponent of fossil fuels, Trump says he’d like to ramp up production, cut regulations and support such infrastructure projects as the Keystone XL pipeline.

Trump has chosen Oklahoma Attorney General Scott Pruitt, a climate-change denier, to run the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency; Rex W. Tillerson, former president and CEO of ExxonMobil Corp., for secretary of state; and former Texas Gov. James R. “Rick” Perry to run the U.S. Energy Department. Perry’s home state is the country’s No. 1 producer of natural gas.

“It’s going to be like the Wild West out there,” Mazze said. “So there may be some short-term benefits in the cost of energy.”

Indeed, should Trump succeed in boosting domestic production of natural gas while also cutting back on regulations and costs, Rhode Island energy consumers could see prices fall, since natural gas is used in 95 percent of the state’s electricity generation. This bodes well for companies that use a large amount of electricity.

“It could possibly be one [of] the best things to happen in the Northeast on the energy-cost front,” said Douglas Gablinske, executive director of The Energy Council of Rhode Island.

Gablinske also expects Trump to make some immediate changes to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, which could encourage the expansion of gas pipelines in the Northeast.

Pipeline-expansion efforts to date have been met with effective pushback, while environmentalists and renewable energy advocates are simultaneously pushing for the advancement of nonfossil-fuel energy.

Deepwater Wind LLC, a Providence-based offshore wind company, recently turned on the nation’s first-ever operational offshore wind farm in the country. Jeffrey Grybowski, president and CEO of Deepwater, however, isn’t too concerned with the new administration, saying on Rhode Island Public Radio’s “The Bottom Line,” co-hosted by Providence Business News Editor Mark S. Murphy, that energy markets in the United States are largely individual, meaning federal policies don’t heavily impact local decisions.

Trump’s cabinet picks, he added, might not be all that bad – at least for his industry – as Perry’s home state is also the No. 1 producer of wind energy.

“Unlike countries in Europe, where central governments make a lot of decisions on how to build energy infrastructure, we tend to make local decisions and let the local markets drive those decisions,” he said. “The impact of a new administration is not nearly as large here as it might be in other parts of the world.”

The number of solar-related jobs in Rhode Island more than tripled to 941 in 2015, compared with 300 the year prior, according to the nonprofit The Solar Foundation. The state ranked 11th in the nation for solar jobs per capita. Growing jobs in the sector became part of the state Senate’s agenda during last year’s legislative session.

Dauterive, who sees the fossil-fuel industries as winning big with Trump, agrees that it’s not necessarily a death wish for renewable energy.

“The alternative-energy world is the future,” he said. “Trump may just slow down the march toward it.” •

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