Colorado State increases outlook for Atlantic storms to 10

Colorado State University increased the number of storms it expects to develop during the Atlantic hurricane season to 10 from nine. More

To continue reading this article, please do one of the following.



environment

Colorado State increases outlook for Atlantic storms to 10

PBN FILE PHOTO/BRIAN MCDONALD
AN INFLUENTIAL PREDICTOR of hurricane activity has increased the number of expected named storms for the coming season, which it still expects to be lighter than average. Above was the scene in Misquamicut shortly after Superstorm Sandy hit the East Coast in 2012.
Posted 6/2/14

BOSTON - Colorado State University increased the number of storms it expects to develop during the Atlantic hurricane season to 10 from nine.

The forecast calls for four of those to become hurricanes, one of them a major system, said Phil Klotzbach, lead author of the outlook. In April, his team predicted three hurricanes, with one growing into a major storm.

“We raised the number slightly because El Nino isn’t coming on as strong as we thought,” Klotzbach said by telephone Monday. “We’re still pretty confident it will be a quiet season.”

Atlantic hurricanes can disrupt U.S. and Mexican natural gas and oil production and affect refineries and agriculture. An estimated $10.6 trillion of insured coastal property in 18 states from Maine to Texas is vulnerable to storm strikes, according to the Insurance Information Institute in New York.

The 30-year average is for the Atlantic to produce 12 storms during the season that runs from June 1 to Nov. 30. Currently, an area of disturbed weather in the Bay of Campeche, in the southern Gulf of Mexico, has a 10 percent chance in the next five days of becoming the season’s first storm, said the U.S. National Hurricane Center in Miami.

The Gulf accounts for about 4.5 percent of U.S. natural gas output, 17 percent of oil production and 51 percent of refining capacity, according to the Energy Information Administration, the Energy Department’s statistical arm. Florida is the largest producer of oranges behind Brazil.

Pacific system

Forecasters are also monitoring a system in the eastern Pacific that has a 80 percent chance of becoming that region’s second storm since its season began May 15.

In April, forecasters believed a powerful El Nino, a warming of the Pacific Ocean, would develop and disrupt weather patterns across the Atlantic, making it harder for tropical systems to form there, Klotzbach said.

In addition, sea surface temperatures across the Atlantic were cooler than in past years, also an indication fewer storms may form, he said. While that basin has gotten warmer, it still lags behind past years.

The Colorado State outlook is closely watched because its Tropical Meteorology Project team pioneered long-range hurricane forecasting 31 years ago.

The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration on May 22 predicted eight to 13 named Atlantic storms, with three to six of them expected to become hurricanes. A storm gets a name when its winds reach 39 miles (63 kilometers) per hour.

Klotzbach said the forecast for fewer storms than average shouldn’t change the way people prepare for hurricane season.

“You have to prepare the same for every season because you never know what is going to happen,” Klotzbach said. “There are plenty of years where relatively quiet seasons had severe impacts.”

Calendar
PBN Hosted
Events

Two Great Programs...One Great Event. PBN's Annual Celebration of Growth and Innovation is now underway. 2014 applications are now available. Deadline August 1st.
  • Healthiest Employers
    Celebrate with the Healthiest Employers in RI on August 14th at the Providence M ...
  • 40 Under Forty
    Thank you to our sponsors and to all those who attended the 10th Anniversary of ...
Advertisement
Purchase Data
Book of Lists
Lists
Book of Lists cover
PBN's annual Book of Lists has been an essential resource for the local business community for almost 30 years. The Book of Lists features a wealth of company rankings from a variety of fields and industries, including banking, health care, real estate, law, hospitality, education, not-for-profits, technology and many more.
Data icons
Data can be purchased as single lists, in either Excel or PDF format; the entire database of the published book, in Excel format; or a printed copy of the Book of Lists.
  • Purchase an e-File of a single list
  •  
  • Purchase an e-File of the entire Book of Lists database
  •  
  • Purchase a printed copy of the Book of Lists
  •  
    National
    Local
    Latest News
    Advertisement