East Coast storm means headaches for travelers, forecasters

THE NATIONAL Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for northwestern Rhode Island and western Kent County until 7 a.m. Thursday. / BLOOMBERG NEWS/JAMIE RECTOR
THE NATIONAL Weather Service has issued a winter weather advisory for northwestern Rhode Island and western Kent County until 7 a.m. Thursday. / BLOOMBERG NEWS/JAMIE RECTOR

BOSTON – A storm dropping rain and snow on the U.S. East Coast on the eve of Thanksgiving Day is causing headaches both for holiday travelers and forecasters trying to determine how bad it will be.

Predictions over the past two days have varied from almost nothing falling in the large East Coast cities, including New York, to as much as 8 inches (20 centimeters). The difference is because of uncertainty on where rain will leave off and snow will begin, and because of lingering warmth that may make it difficult for snow to pile up.

The current forecast for New York calls for snow starting about midday today, with 4 to 6 inches accumulating in the northern part of the city and 2 to 4 in the south. As much as 10 inches are predicted in some areas of northern New Jersey through the lower Hudson Valley and central Connecticut.

“It’s a very challenging forecast, there are still some things that we are not 100 percent confident on,” said David Stark, a National Weather Service meteorologist in Upton, N.Y.

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With heavy snow predicted for inland areas and winter storm alerts stretching from North Carolina to Maine, the nor’easter threatened to disrupt travel, tie up air traffic and possibly cause power outages.

“It’s raining currently along the coast; it’s not going to be a big snowstorm for the I-95 corridor,” Rob Carolan, a meteorologist at Hometown Forecast Services Inc. in Nashua, New Hampshire, said at about 7:30 a.m. local time.

Travel predictions

An estimated 46.3 million travelers will make trips of 50 miles (80 kilometers) or more to reach celebrations for the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday tomorrow, according to AAA. More than 89 percent of those journeys will be by car.

“Significant amounts of snow are forecast that will make travel dangerous,” the weather service said in a bulletin.

Even if the storm just brought rain to the East Coast cities, it will still cause airline delays from Boston to Washington, said Michael Musher, a meteorologist at the Weather Prediction Center in College Park, Md.

For forecasters trying to determine how much snow will fall and where, there are challenges, too.

New York’s high temperature yesterday was 68 degrees Fahrenheit (20 Celsius) at 1 a.m., Stark said. The readings fell through the day and were forecast to be in the 30s by this morning.

If the warm air lingers at the surface, “it is going to be difficult to produce a whole lot of snow,” Musher said.

Warm air

Stark said there’s also a chance a second layer of warmer air will linger about 3,500 feet above the ground, which could melt falling snow.

Boston and eastern New England have the same forecasting challenge.

“The really big area of uncertainty is from northeast Connecticut to Boston,” said Benjamin Sipprell, a weather service meteorologist in Taunton, Mass. “That’s the biggest challenge we are dealing with. It’s a tough forecast, that’s for sure.”

The warm air may also cause sharp gradients between the areas that get snow and those that don’t, Musher said. It may be that some areas get a deep layer, while just a few miles away toward the coast, nothing falls.

By midnight, the storm will be over in most places along the East Coast, Musher said.

In New York, the day will be drier and conditions for the annual Macy’s Thanksgiving Day Parade should be good, said Paul Walker, a meteorologist with AccuWeather, Inc. in State College, Penn. The parade kicks off at 9 a.m. on 77th Street and Central Park West.

After the storm and the holiday, the East Coast cities will have a good, although chilly, day for Black Friday, the traditional kickoff for holiday shopping in the U.S., Walker said.

“The wind could be biting you while as you stand outside waiting for those sales,” Walker said. “As far as the big cities are concerned it’s a good day to shop and I think it’s a good day to watch football, too.”

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