Hurricane Earl winds expected in R.I., Mass. at 3 p.m.

PROVIDENCE – Hurricane Earl will likely pass 50 to 100 miles southeast of Nantucket around midnight Friday, probably as a weakened Category 2 hurricane, Gov. Donald L. Carcieri’s office said in a press release at 6 a.m. Friday, based on data from the National Weather Service.

“Rhode Islanders should make preparations now, before the storm arrives. This is a fast-moving storm, and people should take precautions, monitor the storm carefully,” said Carcieri. The governor signed a declaration of disaster emergency for Rhode Island on Friday as a formal step in order to activate necessary state and federal resources for a potential disaster and as a required step to receive a federal declaration of emergency.

“The public should not misinterpret this declaration of disaster emergency,” said Carcieri. “This declaration is a precautionary and necessary step to ensure that we have full access to the state and federal resources we may need in advance of Hurricane Earl.”

A hurricane warning is still in effect for Massachusetts from Westport to Hull, while a tropical storm warning extends from New Haven, Conn., eastward through Rhode Island to Westport. The Massachusetts coast from Hull north to the Merrimack River is also under a tropical storm warning.

The governor’s office noted that there is “increased confidence” in where the hurricane will track and its intensity level Friday morning.

The tropical storm force winds are expected to arrive between 3 p.m. and 5 p.m., with the peak of the storm expected between 8 p.m. to 2 a.m. Winds are expected to fade in the early morning Saturday, between 4 a.m. and 8 a.m.

In southeastern Massachusetts, a flash flood watch is in effect for the southern Bristol and southern Plymouth Counties as well as Cape Cod, Martha’s Vineyard and Nantucket. These areas can expect 2 to 4 inches of rain and up to 6 inches; the heaviest rain for these areas will be from 8 p.m. to midnight.

The most likely areas to see any sustained hurricane force winds will be the outer Cape area and Nantucket. Minor flooding may be caused by storm surges of 2 to 4 feet in these areas during the Friday evening high tide.

Rhode Island and the rest of eastern Massachusetts can expect 1 to 3 inches of rain. Tropical storm force winds - either sustained or in gusts - are likely along the immediate Rhode Island coast and Block Island. The Massachusetts east coast and interior southeast can expect the tropical storm force winds in gusts.

Narragansett Bay may see surges of about 2 feet, which could cause spotty minor coastal flooding. The worst case scenario would put the mean lower low water level at the Fox Point Hurricane Barrier at 6.5 to 7 feet above normal and with splash over possible due to large breakers in the ocean-exposed south coast.

The hurricane barrier, which protects downtown Providence from severe storm surges, had not been closed as of 9:30 a.m., officials said.

Minor storm surge flooding is possible on Cape Cod for the Wellfleet and Provincetown harbors after Earl passes Friday night.

All of southern New England should expect high seas, high surf and dangerous rip currents through Saturday.

Preparations for Earl should be completed by noon on Friday for the south coast, Cape Cod and islands, the governor’s office said, adding that urban poor drainage flooding is the most likely problem during the storm.

The Block Island ferry has canceled its services for the rest of Friday.

For the rest of the Labor Day weekend, weather is expected to be mostly sunny and gusty on Saturday with subsided – but still potentially dangerous - swells, surf and rip currents.