Improvement, but hardly crow-worthy

The latest federal statistics on gross domestic product growth paint an improving picture in the Providence-Warwick-Fall River metropolitan area, but it is hardly a standout in the nation.

From 2010-2015, the real gross domestic product (that is, factoring out the effects of inflation) for the Providence metro increased 5.3 percent. That compares with 9.9 percent growth for the nation as a whole.

For that same time period, the local metro ranked seventh among the 15 New England metros tracked by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis. The No. 1 metro for growth? Bridgeport-Stamford-Norwalk, Conn., with cumulative growth of 9.5 percent. Right behind it, the Boston-Cambridge-Newton area, with five-year growth of 8.8 percent (both were still below the national average).

Five metros actually showed shrinkage over the five years, with the Norwich-New London, Conn., area contracting 11.6 percent. The other metros showing (the oxymoronic) negative growth were: Bangor, Maine; Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, Conn.; Lewiston-Auburn, Maine; and New Haven-Milford, Conn.

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A slightly better local picture, at least relatively speaking, appears if the change from 2014 to 2015 (whose numbers are classified as “advance statistics” by the BEA) is calculated. Rhode Island showed 1.3 percent real growth in that period, behind the nation’s 2.5 percent growth, but fourth best in New England. One could argue, although not too loudly, that Gov. Gina M. Raimondo’s administration is at least helping the state improve compared to its neighbors. But no matter how well the Providence metro is doing compared to the underperforming New England region, it still has a long way to go to catch the nation’s fastest-growing regions.

Perhaps the real tests of the effectiveness of the Raimondo policy initiatives will not show themselves until next year, after their effects have had a longer time to play themselves out. Until then, modest success will have to suffice. •

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