Lardaro: Economy holds steady in October, still ‘canary in the proverbial national economic coal mine’

NINE OF THE 12 indicators that comprise the Current Conditions Index improved in October, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro. / COURTESY LEONARD LARDARO
NINE OF THE 12 indicators that comprise the Current Conditions Index improved in October, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro. / COURTESY LEONARD LARDARO

SOUTH KINGSTOWN – The state’s Current Conditions Index remains at 75 for the third consecutive month, according to Leonard Lardaro, a University of Rhode Island economist.

Released Monday, the October findings mean that since July, the CCI has been measured at values of 67 or higher and has matched or exceeded the measurements of July through October 2015. CCI measurements analyze the findings of 12 indicators; those higher than 50 suggest economic growth, while a value below 50 indicates contraction.

“Not only have we effectively erased virtually all of the weakness we experienced earlier this year, we are continuing to see evidence that an acceleration in the pace of our state’s economic momentum is occurring,” Lardaro said.

Rhode Island’s unemployment rate for October was 5.5 percent, a decrease of 0.1 percent from both a month prior and October 2015.

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The nine CCI indicators reporting positive momentum in October were:

  • Government employment, which rose by 0.2 percent, due to increased federal government employment;
  • Labor force, which grew 0.8 percent; it had previously declined on a year-over-year basis for the past 26 consecutive months;
  • Employment service jobs jumped to 2 percent in October from 0.1 percent in September;
  • Total manufacturing hours rose 1.8 percent in October;
  • Manufacturing wage climbed 6.6 percent;
  • New Claims fell 13.6 percent, its third improvement in the last four months;
  • Private service-producing employment rose 1.9 percent;
  • Retail sales rose 3.3 percent.

Negative measurements in the October Current Conditions Index were recorded in:

  • Single-unit permits, which fell 6.1 percent;
  • U.S. consumer sentiment decreased 3.3 percent after two consecutive months of improvement;
  • Benefit exhaustions slipped 13.1 percent.

Lardaro said there is a lot of work to be done before Rhode Island’s economy does not mirror the actions of the national economy.

For now, however, he said the Ocean State remains the “canary in the proverbial national economic coal mine.”

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