Lardaro: R.I. economic momentum in November buoyed by ‘a bit of a rebound’

NINE OUT of 12 economic indicators on University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro's Current Conditions Index improved in November. / COURTESY LEONARD LARDARO
NINE OUT of 12 economic indicators on University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro's Current Conditions Index improved in November. / COURTESY LEONARD LARDARO

SOUTH KINGSTOWN – Rhode Island economic momentum was buoyed by “a bit of a rebound” in November, according to University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro.
In his Current Conditions Index, Lardaro reported a measurement of 75 for the month, slightly above the 67 that registered in October and well above the CCI of 58 a year prior. The year-over-year increase represents the ninth time this year that the CCI has matched or exceeded its year earlier value, Lardaro wrote.
A CCI value, which measures economic momentum using 12 key indicators, reflects economic growth when the CCI is higher than 50 and suggests contraction when the value is below 50.
Unfortunately, this year’s economic momentum in August and September was significantly higher, with CCIs of 92 and 83 respectively, so November’s reading reflects a continuing slowdown that parallels a lessening rate of growth nationally, Lardaro said.
“At this point, it is safe to say that as the national economy slows, Rhode Island experiences the downdraft on its growth almost immediately,” he said.
Much of the recent weakness continues to be in the manufacturing sector. Total manufacturing hours fell by 1.4 percent, its sixth decline in the past eight months, while the manufacturing wage declined by 2.3 percent.
That said, nine indicators improved. New home construction, measured by single-unit permits rose by 58.8 percent year over year. Also significant were a decline in new claims for unemployment, which dropped by 17.9 percent, and benefit exhaustions, which reflect longer-lasting unemployment, and declined by 11.5 percent.
Other improvements: U.S. consumer sentiment, +2.8; retail sales, +0.4 percent; employment services jobs, +6.3 percent; private service-producing employment, +2.5 percent; labor force, +1.1 percent; and the unemployment rate of 5.2 percent, a decline of 1.7 percentage points year over year.
“My major concern moving forward,” Lardaro notes, “is that both our employment rate and labor force participation rate have continued to decline since July, with both remaining well below their recession levels.”
Routine, upcoming revisions to labor market data may present a clearer picture of what’s going on economically, he said.

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