Lardaro: R.I. economy ‘late to the party,’ now gathering steam

SOUTH KINGSTOWN – Rhode Island’s economic momentum, measured monthly by economist Leonard Lardaro, has met or exceeded year-earlier values five months in a row, a clear indication of progress.
That’s the latest statewide assessment from the University of Rhode Island economist, who measures and evaluates economic momentum using 12 economic indicators. He publishes his findings monthly in a report dubbed the “Current Conditions Index.”
July’s CCI was 75, exceeding its year-earlier value of 67, and matching June’s value of 75. CCI measurements higher than 50 suggest economic growth, while a value below 50 indicates contraction. The CCIs for March and May were 67, higher than the same month a year earlier, while April 2015’s CCI of 58 matched the value a year prior.
“We continue to witness our state’s economy improving based almost entirely on national and neighboring-state momentum,” Lardaro said, referring to the economic growth other states are witnessing as they recover from the Great Recession. “Better late to ‘the party,’ I guess, than never getting there at all.”
Of the nine economic indicators that improved, the labor force rose by one percent in July, while the unemployment rate declined to 5.8 percent, “accompanied by large jumps in both resident and payroll employment, along with a substantial decline in the number of unemployed,” he said.
The continued momentum indicates “we are finally witnessing a period where Rhode Island’s unemployment rate is declining in the way we want it to,” he added, “and not as the statistical byproduct of unemployed persons dropping out of the labor force.”
Failing to improve were single-unit permits, which fell 19.4 percent; total manufacturing hours, which dropped by 1.4 percent, and the manufacturing wage, down 1.9 percent.
Other key indicators that improved included employment service jobs, increasing by 10.2 percent, and new claims for unemployment and benefit exhaustions, both of which decreased by 7.8 percent and 26.4 percent respectively.

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