ECONOMIC INDICATORS

Leading economic indicators stagnate in July

COURTESY E-FORECASTING.COM
THE PROVIDENCE BUSINESS NEWS/e-forecasting.com Leading Economic Index showed that Rhode Island's reading was stagnant in July, with a score of 120.3.
Posted 9/7/12

PROVIDENCE – An index of Rhode Island’s leading economic indicators produced by Providence Business News and e-forecasting.com held steady at 120.3 in July.

A reading of 100 on the Providence Business News/e-forecasting.com Leading Economic Indicator Index is equivalent to the state’s activity in 2000.

The state leading indicator edged up 0.1 percent in July after a decline of 0.1 percent in June.

The economic indicator index uses nine statistics to forecast the direction of the state’s economy over the next three to six months. Positive numbers signal growth while negative numbers denote contraction.

Four of the nine statistics had positive contributions to the index in July, including: unemployment claims, building permits, national stock prices and interest rate speed.

Five components negatively contributed to Rhode Island’s growth in July, including: weekly hours in manufacturing, exports of manufactures, regional consumer expectations, national orders index and the state employment barometer.

In July, Rhode Island’s six-month growth rate – “a signal of turning points” – was 5.1 percent, after holding a rate of 5.6 percent in June.

By comparison, the long-term annual growth rate for the index was 2 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state’s overall economic activity.

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