Positive R.I. employment data pushes Nov. LEI up 1.1%

An index of Rhode Island’s leading economic indicators produced by Providence Business News and e-forecasting.com rose 1.1 percent in November to 124.8 from 123.5 in October. More

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Positive R.I. employment data pushes Nov. LEI up 1.1%

RHODE ISLAND'S Leading Economic Indicator Index -- produced jointly by Providence Business News and e-forecasting.com -- climbed 1.1 percent in November, rising to 124.8 from 123.5 a month earlier. The 1.1 percent increase in November was the largest gain since March 2012.
Posted 1/3/14

PROVIDENCE – An index of Rhode Island’s leading economic indicators produced by Providence Business News and e-forecasting.com rose 1.1 percent in November to 124.8 from 123.5 in October.

The 1.1 percent increase in November – the largest gain since March 2012, when the index also rose 1.1 percent – followed an increase of 1 percent in October, signifying an acceleration of expected economic growth in the state. November was the seventh consecutive month of improvement in Rhode Island’s leading economic indicators.

The economic indicator index uses nine statistics to forecast the direction of the state’s economy over the next three to six months. Positive numbers signal growth while negative numbers denote contraction.

A reading of 100 on the Providence Business News/e-forecasting.com Leading Economic Indicator Index is equivalent to the state’s activity in 2000. In November 2012, the leading indicator index was 118.7.

Seven of the nine components made a positive contribution to Rhode Island’s economy in November, including: unemployment claims, weekly hours in manufacturing, regional consumer expectations, national stock prices, the interest rate spread, the national orders index and the state employment barometer.

November marked the second consecutive month that the state employment barometer registered a positive contribution on the Leading Economic Indicator Index.

Two of the components made a negative contribution to index in November, including building permits and manufacturing exports.

In November, Rhode Island’s six-month growth rate – “a signal of turning points” – was 6.6 percent, up from a rate of 5.2 percent in October.

By comparison, the long-term annual growth rate for the index was 1.9 percent, the same as the annual growth rate of the state’s overall economic activity.

Nationally, the e-forecasting.com U.S. leading economic indicator jumped up 1.5 percent in November, with a rising six-month growth rate of 6.5 percent.

Six of the seven components used to calculate the U.S. leading economic indicator made positive contributions in November, including new manufacturing orders, national stock prices, national consumer expectations, interest rate spread, manufacturing productivity and foreign demand.

The sole component to negatively impact the U.S. leading indicator in November was housing activity.

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Lets hope these indicators are correct. However, despite the recent reforms by the both the State of Rhode Island and the city of Providence there are major hurdles for local governments in the immediate future.Providence is most definitely still in trouble and my study shows that between 4 and 7 towns are headed for receivership in the next few years unless immediate action is taken. The spill over effect and subsequent impact on taxpayers will put a huge dent in consumer spending and most likely the indicators you cite. http://rishrugs.blogspot.com/

Michael Riley

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