SOUTH KINGSTOWN – The state experienced a “very disappointing” first quarter as Rhode Island’s economy was “expanding, but barely,” said University of Rhode Island economist Leonard Lardaro.
Lardaro’s Current Conditions Index, released Monday, was 58, a seven-point decline from February’s 67, the same rating the CCI scored for February 2015. March’s figure also represented a decline from the 67 recorded in March 2015. CCI measurements higher than 50 suggest economic growth; a value below 50 indicates contraction.
“Make no mistake about it, this month’s CCI value of 58 was an ugly 58 based on the behavior of a number of key indicators. Worse yet, the CCI once again failed to exceed its year-earlier value, a feat we have yet to accomplish this year,” said Lardaro.
Each month’s measurement reflects 12 broad-base indicators of economic activity including consumer sentiment, unemployment, retail sales and government employment.
He noted one major positive movement in March’s CCI was the 44.1 percent growth of single-unit permits, which was preceded by a rise of 185.7 percent in February.
Other sectors that experienced positive movement were:
- Private service-producing employment at 2 percent
- Total manufacturing hours and manufacturing wage, which both increased 0.4 percent
- The unemployment rate declined 0.9 percent
- And benefit exhaustions fell 26.5 percent
Negatives noted by Lardaro were:
- A 0.5 percent decline in the labor force, the 22nd year-over-year fall for the state
- A 2.9 percent decrease in retail sales, which Lardaro said was usually “the CCI’s star performer”
- A 1.9 percent fall in U.S. consumer sentiment, the fourth consecutive decline for that category
- A 1.1 percent dip for employment service jobs, its first decline in more than a year
- A 10.1 percent fall for new unemployment benefits claims, a leading labor market indicator of layoffs
- A 0.7 percent dip for government employment
Lardaro said the “biggest surprise” in the March CCI was the 0.4 percent jump in manufacturing wage, the first increase for that category in a “long time.”
He called the growth rates for all factors, with the exception of single-unit permits and private sector-producing employment, “mediocre, to say the least.”
He added: “Unfortunately, we have allowed ourselves to remain far from where we would have been had we reinvented our state’s economy in ways that would better insulate us from weakening national economic growth.”