Rise in U.S. box imports heralds better economy

The U.S. imported the most box loads of Asian goods from shoes to tires in six years last quarter, a signal that the world’s largest economy is gathering strength heading into the holiday season.
Imports from Asia rose 4.1 percent to 3.5 million containers from a year earlier, the biggest increase since 2011 and the most since the 2007 record, according to PIERS, the unit of the Newark, N.J.-based publisher JOC Group that tracks ports data. Plastic products, fabrics and tires led gains.
With consumer spending accounting for about 70 percent of the U.S. economy, the rising imports mirror positive indicators, including advancing payrolls. While Best Buy Co. said it expects price discounting to damp profit, Home Depot Inc. increased earnings and sales forecasts as shoppers shift to home and auto goods from discretionary purchases such as clothing. Retail sales rose more than forecast in October, a sign that consumer spending was resilient even during the government shutdown.
“It comes as a surprise to many industry expectations” that imports are rebounding, said Mario Moreno, an economist at JOC in Newark.
A glut of container ships is pushing shipping costs to a 22-month low, according to shipbroker Clarkson Plc, even as Asia-to-U.S. shipments grow by 3 percent this year, the fastest since 2010, JOC estimates.
The U.S. economy will expand at an annualized pace of 1.9 percent this quarter, according to the average of 95 estimates compiled by Bloomberg. In the third quarter, growth was 2.8 percent, topping the forecast of 1.9 percent. Employers added 204,000 workers in October, more than the 120,000 that economists expected.
Unemployment will return to 7.2 percent this quarter, the lowest since the end of 2008, the mean of 72 predictions shows. Joblessness increased in October as the 16-day budget impasse caused furloughs of 800,000 federal workers. The government shutdown also sent the Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary consumer-sentiment index for November down to 72, the weakest since December 2011, from 73.2 in October. Retail sales rose 0.4 percent in October, the most in three months, Commerce Department figures showed. The median forecast of 86 economists surveyed by Bloomberg called for a 0.1 percent advance following no change in September.
While the National Retail Federation said last month it expects holiday sales to advance 3.9 percent to a record $602.1 billion, up from 3.5 percent growth in 2012, Chicago-based researcher ShopperTrak said purchases may rise only 2.4 percent, the smallest gain since 2009. •

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