The campaign for the U.K. to quit the European Union was forced onto the back foot Monday as momentum shifted back to “Remain” three days before the EU referendum.
The pound jumped the most since 2008 and bookmakers reduced the chances of a victory for “Leave” in a sign that investors were growing more confident British voters will opt to stay in the EU on June 23. Governments and investors around the world are watching the referendum amid concern that a so-called Brexit would spark turmoil across global markets.
While opinion polls suggest the campaigns are neck and neck, bookmaker figures processed by the Oddschecker survey found that the probability of a vote to leave has fallen to 24.8 percent from almost 40 percent on June 15. Implied probability for a “Remain” vote rose to about 80.4 percent.
Prime Minister David Cameron’s efforts to lead the campaign to stay went mostly unhampered as lawmakers paused an often-virulent contest to pay tribute to murdered colleague Jo Cox. Cameron and opposition Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn led tributes to the Labour lawmaker killed on Thursday, after Parliament was recalled from a pre-referendum recess.
Cameron described Cox as “a voice of compassion,” recalled her struggles for refugees and quoted her own words: “We are far more united and have far more in common with each other than things that divide us.” Corbyn, who has joined Conservative leader Cameron in campaigning against a Brexit, also stressed the need for unity.
“In her tragic death we can come together to change our politics,” he said. “To tolerate a little more and condemn a little less.”
Cox was killed as she attended a meeting with constituents in the town of Birstall, northern England, in the first murder of a U.K. lawmaker in a quarter of a century. Her death led to soul-searching among politicians about the rancorous nature of the Brexit debate, and both sides suspended the campaign for 60 hours after the murder.
Biggest gain
The pound surged against the dollar for its biggest gain since 2008 and sterling volatility retreated following polls published Sunday showing “Remain” regaining the lead that it had lost in recent weeks. The pound was up 2.3 percent at $1.4693 as of 5:49 p.m. in London.
Writing in the Telegraph newspaper on Monday, former London Mayor Boris Johnson urged Britons to “change the whole course of European history,” saying leaving the EU would be “overwhelmingly positive” for the U.K.
“What is the Remain camp offering?” Johnson said. “Nothing. No change, no improvement, no reform; nothing but the steady and miserable erosion of parliamentary democracy in this country.”
U.K. Independence Party Leader Nigel Farage, criticized by his foes for a poster depicting a crowd of refugees entering the EU, defended the focus on immigration. He told a BBC Radio interview that “the central point of this campaign is that we want to control our country and part of that is controlling our borders.”
Legal challenge
“It’s wrong to shut down immigration as a debate,” Leave. EU founder Arron Bank said Monday in a Bloomberg Television interview. “People are worried about it. When we poll people, it’s the number one thing they’re concerned about. Two, three and four are schools, hospitals, services, which are proxies for immigration.”
The Brexit campaign was confronted with a legal challenge on Monday. Nissan Motor Co. said it was “extremely disappointed to discover that the Vote Leave campaign had been using the Nissan name and logo in their literature.” The Japanese carmaker filed a lawsuit asking the group to stop using company intellectual property.
In Brussels, EU leaders said Britain departing the bloc is a real possibility. “I have no doubt that our enemies — internal and external enemies — will open a bottle of champagne if the result is negative for us,” EU Council President Donald Tusk said. Whatever the outcome, “we must take a long hard look” at the EU’s future, he said.
Elsewhere in the campaign:
Ten Nobel-winning economists wrote to the Guardian newspaper saying Britain is better off inside the EU. German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said EU policy makers have safeguards in place to avoid “chaotic developments” should Britons vote to leave. The pressure group Migration Watch said migrants cost the U.K. as much as 17 billion pounds ($25 billion) a year, without explaining how it arrived at the figure. U.S. billionaire Wilbur Ross told Bloomberg Television a “Leave” vote would be the “most expensive divorce proceeding in the history of the world.”
After the display of cross-party unity at the House of Commons, campaigners will swiftly return to pressing their arguments. Corbyn will appear on Sky News on Monday evening to face questions from a studio audience. Senior politicians and key figures from both sides will take part in a live debate in Wembley the following evening.
