WASHINGTON – New housing starts and permits for new residential construction fell nationwide last month to the lowest pace on record, and the Northeast region led the decline, according to the joint report issued today by the U.S. Commerce Department’s Bureau of the Census and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development (HUD).
U.S. builders broke ground on new dwellings last month at a seasonally adjusted rate of 791,000 units per year, the lowest since recordkeeping began in 1959, the Census Bureau said. That represented a 4.47-percent decrease from September’s upwardly revised rate of 828,000 per year and a 37.96-percent decline from October 2007’s revised 1.27 million units per year.
Analysts had expected total housing starts would dip to an annual pace of 780,000 – from the Census Bureau’s original September estimate of 817,000 per year (READ MORE) – based on the median forecast from a Bloomberg News survey of 75 economists. (Their estimates of the October pace ranged from 700,000 to 870,000 units per year.)
The decline was led by single-family housing starts, which fell to an October pace of 531,000 units per year. That represented a decline of 3.28 percent from September’s revised pace of 549,000 units per year and 39.93 percent from a year ago. Multi-family housing starts also fell last month, erasing part of September’s gain: Builders started work on new structures with five or more units at a rate of 247,000 units per year, a decline of 5.72 percent from September’s revised 262,000-unit pace and 29.63 percent from October 2007.
Building permits for new residential projects – an indicator of future construction – were issued nationwide last month at a seasonally adjusted rate of 708,000 units per year. The lowest rate since at least 1960, it represented a 12.05-percent decline from September’s revised housing-authorization pace of 805,000 per year and 40.10 percent from the revised October 2007 estimate of 1.18 million.
Single-family authorizations nationwide in October fell to a rate of 460,000 units per year, a 14.50-percent decline from September’s revised 538,000 units per year and a 43.28-percent decline from a year ago. Multi-family permits also slowed last month, when authorizations for buildings of five or more units were issued at a rate of 218,000 units per year, down 6.44 percent from September and 32.51 percent from October 2007.
“The problems in housing were exacerbated by the credit problems we had in September and October,” Russell Price, a senior economist at Ameriprise Financial Inc. in Detroit, told Bloomberg News. “Housing will be slow to rebound from that period.”
The Northeast led the decline in housing starts, with new residential construction in the region plunging last month to an annual pace of 78,000 units per year. That represented a decline of 30.97 percent from the month before and 51.55 percent from October 2007. Single-family housing starts were unchanged from September at 57,000 units per year, down 40.6 percent from a year ago.
Total housing starts also fell compared with September in the Midwest (-13.7 percent), but rose in the South (+1.5 percent) and the West (+7.5 percent). Residential new construction lagged year-ago levels in every region.
New permits also slowed more sharply in the Northeast than elsewhere. Across the region, housing permits were issued last month at an annual pace of 71,000 units per year, a decline of 23.66 percent from the month before and 51.03 percent from October 2007. Single-family permits in the Northeast starts fell to a rate of 46,000 units per year, a decline of 16.36 percent from September and 39.47 percent from a year ago.
Total housing authorizations also fell in the other three regions, the Census Bureau said. After the Northeast, the sharpest monthly decline was in the South (-13.5 percent), followed by the West (-8.8 percent) and Midwest (-3.7 percent). Compared with October 2007, permits for residential construction fell sharply in every region.
Today’s government figures followed a private report showing that builder confidence also fell to a record low, spurring a call for government intervention. The National Association of Home Builders / Wells Fargo Housing Market Index plunged to 9 points this month – the lowest since the measure’s creation in 1985 – from October’s reading of 14 points and the 2007 average of 27. Declines were seen in every region, led by the Midwest.
“We are in a crisis situation,” Sandy Dunn, the NAHB’s chairman and a builder from Point Pleasant, W.Va., said in a statement yesterday afternoon. “If there’s any hope of turning this economy around, Congress and the administration need to focus on stabilizing housing. Tremendous economic uncertainties have driven consumers from the housing market, and it’s going to take some major incentives to bring them back.”
“The housing downturn has already cost America 3 million jobs in construction and related industries, and this downward momentum cannot be stemmed without substantive government intervention,” agreed David Crowe, the NAHB’s new chief economist, “Congress should consider significant consumer incentives.”
Additional information, including the full New Residential Construction Report issued today by the U.S. Commerce Department’s Census Bureau and the U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development, is available at www.census.gov .