Report: U.S. could lose 2M jobs in 2009
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COURTESY THE CONFERENCE BOARD
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NEW YORK – The U.S. employment picture darkened further last month, suggesting that job losses could continue well into 2009, according to The Conference Board.
The group’s Employment Trends Index fell in December to 99.6 (1996 = 100 points) – dropping 1.6 percent compared with November and nearly 16 percent compared with a year ago – in its 17th consecutive monthly decline.
The ETI – a leading index for the labor market – is a composite of eight economic indicators: The percent of respondents who say they currently find “jobs hard to get” in the board’s monthly Consumer Confidence Survey; the percent of firms reporting job openings they are “not able to fill right now,” according to the National Federation of Independent Business; initial claims for unemployment insurance, as reported by the U.S. Department of Labor’s Employment Training Administration; the number of employees hired by the temporary-help industry, the number of people who are working part-time for economic reasons, and the number of job openings at employers nationwide, all according to the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS); real manufacturing and trade sales, reported by the Labor Department’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA); and U.S. industrial production, reported by the Federal Reserve Board.
“The continued deterioration in the Employment Trends Index signals that no turnaround in the labor market is to be expected in the near future,” said Gad Levanon, The Conference Board’s senior economist. Declines in every component have been seen in the past 17 months, he said; over the past half year, the most notable have been in temporary-help hires and involuntary part-time workers.
“During 2008, total nonfarm employment declined by more than 2.5 million,” Levanon added, citing data from the BLS’ latest monthly Employment Situation report. (READ MORE) “And the sharp declines in the Employment Trends Index suggest that in 2009, this number could grow by another 2 million.”
The Conference Board is a nonpartisan, nonprofit business membership and research organization with offices in New York City, Chicago and abroad. Additional information, including the group’s latest monthly Employment Trends Index, is available at www.Conference-Board.org.